RoastedLinux2010 Draft: Running Backs
April 13th 2010 20:58
Rookie Running Backs 2010
Running backs is where the money is in Fantasy Keeper Leagues - at least as far as rookies are concerned. QBs and WRs always take a few years to become productive, so drafting a rookie QB or WR is a long-term gamble. I like to gamble now and then, but I like to have a sure bet now and then, too. Rookie RBs can make an impact right away, and score big points almost every week. Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson did in their first years, and Ray Rice now does in his second.
Draft two or three as the draft goes into its later rounds, just in case. It's hard to forget the 1st round backs who've disappeared due to injuries or terrible O-lines, like what's-his-name over in Oakland and I-can't-remember-who in Tampa...
Let's look at the success stories to see what they have in common.
Adrian Peterson: Raw talent. Peterson is a monster. He has a good O-line, and the Minnesota D helps, too. The WR's are good. He's in a perfect situation.
Chris Johnson: Speed. Rising team. Talent. Speed. Versatility. Even when the QB situation is rocky, Johnson still puts up stats. But he's on a team that has solid D and some other weapons.
Ray Rice: The only thing holding Rice back is Harbaugh's game plan and McGahee stealing TD's. Watching him play is awe-inspiring. It was interesting watching him develop. His rookie year, Flacco was learning the NFL QB position, and Rice wasn't making as many lightning-quick moves. Now, with more confidence, and a better Flacco, Rice will be great for years to come. If you drafted him as a rookie and kept him around, you were happy.
MJD: MJD is a beast. And with Garrard only getting better, MJD will continue to be a beast. Here's the kicker - he was selected 60th in the draft. 60th. His speed and quickness
Steven Jackson: There's no accounting for Jackson's success. He has little offensive support - with a mediocre QB, the pressure is always on him. He was drafted 24th, and fits the current NFL model for the successful RB. He's big and fast and a bruiser. He doesn't get injured a lot, at least not long-term.
Most Running Backs selected first in the draft do well. But there's more to it than just the draft position. After all, Darren McFadden was the 1st RB drafted in 2008. Poor Guy. So fantasy-drafting takes some thought, and this notion that a good back in the NFL has to be 6' tall and 225 lbs. is crap. Three of the backs above were called "undersized." Let's look at 2010's candidates:
- C.J. Spiller, Clemson - 5'11'' 196 lbs.
- Ryan Mathews, Fresno State - 6'0'' 217 lbs.
- Jahvid Best, California - 5'10'' 199 lbs.
- Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss - 5'7'' 172 lbs.
- Ben Tate, Auburn - 5'11'' 219 lbs.
- Jonathan Dwyer, GA Tech - 5'11" 229 lbs.
Spiller is listed as the #1 choice on almost every draft board you'll find. He's strong, really fast, and ready for the NFL. He'll likely be the first RB chosen, and he has every reason to be. Matthews, Best, and Dwyer are Juniors, and although extremely strong runners, might need some time to mature. My second favorite on the list is Tate, who showed remarkable speed at the combine - a 4.34 40. McCluster is the Chris Johnson of this year's draft. With speed and moves aplenty, he stepped into the RB role midseason and ran for 800 yds in 4 games. He can run and catch, and he might rack up some great stats in fantasy world.
I'll have more thoughts once we see who picks up these rookies. It makes a HUGE difference. And then preseason, and ...
I can't wait!
-
Running backs is where the money is in Fantasy Keeper Leagues - at least as far as rookies are concerned. QBs and WRs always take a few years to become productive, so drafting a rookie QB or WR is a long-term gamble. I like to gamble now and then, but I like to have a sure bet now and then, too. Rookie RBs can make an impact right away, and score big points almost every week. Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson did in their first years, and Ray Rice now does in his second.
Draft two or three as the draft goes into its later rounds, just in case. It's hard to forget the 1st round backs who've disappeared due to injuries or terrible O-lines, like what's-his-name over in Oakland and I-can't-remember-who in Tampa...
Let's look at the success stories to see what they have in common.
Adrian Peterson: Raw talent. Peterson is a monster. He has a good O-line, and the Minnesota D helps, too. The WR's are good. He's in a perfect situation.
Chris Johnson: Speed. Rising team. Talent. Speed. Versatility. Even when the QB situation is rocky, Johnson still puts up stats. But he's on a team that has solid D and some other weapons.
Ray Rice: The only thing holding Rice back is Harbaugh's game plan and McGahee stealing TD's. Watching him play is awe-inspiring. It was interesting watching him develop. His rookie year, Flacco was learning the NFL QB position, and Rice wasn't making as many lightning-quick moves. Now, with more confidence, and a better Flacco, Rice will be great for years to come. If you drafted him as a rookie and kept him around, you were happy.
Steven Jackson: There's no accounting for Jackson's success. He has little offensive support - with a mediocre QB, the pressure is always on him. He was drafted 24th, and fits the current NFL model for the successful RB. He's big and fast and a bruiser. He doesn't get injured a lot, at least not long-term.
Most Running Backs selected first in the draft do well. But there's more to it than just the draft position. After all, Darren McFadden was the 1st RB drafted in 2008. Poor Guy. So fantasy-drafting takes some thought, and this notion that a good back in the NFL has to be 6' tall and 225 lbs. is crap. Three of the backs above were called "undersized." Let's look at 2010's candidates:
- C.J. Spiller, Clemson - 5'11'' 196 lbs.
- Ryan Mathews, Fresno State - 6'0'' 217 lbs.
- Jahvid Best, California - 5'10'' 199 lbs.
- Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss - 5'7'' 172 lbs.
- Ben Tate, Auburn - 5'11'' 219 lbs.
- Jonathan Dwyer, GA Tech - 5'11" 229 lbs.
Spiller is listed as the #1 choice on almost every draft board you'll find. He's strong, really fast, and ready for the NFL. He'll likely be the first RB chosen, and he has every reason to be. Matthews, Best, and Dwyer are Juniors, and although extremely strong runners, might need some time to mature. My second favorite on the list is Tate, who showed remarkable speed at the combine - a 4.34 40. McCluster is the Chris Johnson of this year's draft. With speed and moves aplenty, he stepped into the RB role midseason and ran for 800 yds in 4 games. He can run and catch, and he might rack up some great stats in fantasy world.
I'll have more thoughts once we see who picks up these rookies. It makes a HUGE difference. And then preseason, and ...
I can't wait!
-
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