The NFL: Where parity thrives against the spread
November 14th 2011 08:18
I challenge you, the readers, to come up with another sport that is so upside down sometimes and as unpredictable as the NFL. Football, in general, is a sport built on team chemistry, emotion, and team execution. Motivation and revenge is another factor. I think the biggest reason the NFL seduces so many casual gamblers is because it’s a once-a- week hobby and lasts around 24 weeks a year. It’s a not an everyday grind but if you are not careful this is a league can eat your wallet alive. I believe you can analyze every game to a tee or flip a coin and still have the same odds of winning on many of these games.
I don’t care what any tout tells me or what the sharps (the few who make their living sports betting) bet on, the NFL has become the most exciting and wallet-busting sport in this country. This is a league where any team can beat each other on any Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl contending team but that doesn’t mean they are good against the number. In this season alone, Baltimore has thrived as small favorites and won as a three point dog against Pittsburgh in a thrilling game last week. Don’t put your money on the Ravens when playing against teams with losing records. Or if they are double-digit favorites.
Baltimore got it handed to them today at Quest Field against the Seattle Seahawks as a touchdown favorite. Yes, they lost outright to a team quarterbacked by Tarvaris Jackson. And they failed to show up Monday night against Jacksonville earlier in the season as a 10 point favorite due to their lack of offense. Couple that with being an 11 point favorite at home two weeks ago hosting the Arizona Cardinals, and the Ravens barely escaped that game with a straight up win.
Seriously, how many games are there on any given week where you can seriously feel like you can sit back and watch one team destroy another with relative ease. It doesn’t happen in this league very often although the Colts are doing the best they can to be the whipping boy without their savior this season. Even if you are rooting for your team and not betting, almost every game is compelling from a point differential standpoint.
For example, I must have underestimated Eric Mangini’s ability to use an extra week to prepare his Cleveland Browns last season against the visiting New England Patriots. That bye week allowed Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis to completely destroy New England 34-14. Oh and the spread in that game? New England was a four point road favorite against the Browns! That didn’t end up so well for yours truly. Glad I avoided another one of those trap road favorite games. A la the St. Louis Rams beat down of the New Orleans a few weeks back.
The NBA has used an advertising slogan “Where amazing happens” the past couple seasons. It got me thinking about a new NFL advertising pitch. Instead of 30 year olds gathered around a big screen downing beer and screaming for their two win football team, we change the message a bit. I was thinking along the lines of: “Bet On The NFL: It will tease your wallet until the remnants of your bankroll are flushed down the toilet due to those seductive Sunday and Monday night prime time games that make you double down to get back some of the dough lost on Sunday afternoon!”
I don’t care what any tout tells me or what the sharps (the few who make their living sports betting) bet on, the NFL has become the most exciting and wallet-busting sport in this country. This is a league where any team can beat each other on any Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl contending team but that doesn’t mean they are good against the number. In this season alone, Baltimore has thrived as small favorites and won as a three point dog against Pittsburgh in a thrilling game last week. Don’t put your money on the Ravens when playing against teams with losing records. Or if they are double-digit favorites.
Baltimore got it handed to them today at Quest Field against the Seattle Seahawks as a touchdown favorite. Yes, they lost outright to a team quarterbacked by Tarvaris Jackson. And they failed to show up Monday night against Jacksonville earlier in the season as a 10 point favorite due to their lack of offense. Couple that with being an 11 point favorite at home two weeks ago hosting the Arizona Cardinals, and the Ravens barely escaped that game with a straight up win.
Seriously, how many games are there on any given week where you can seriously feel like you can sit back and watch one team destroy another with relative ease. It doesn’t happen in this league very often although the Colts are doing the best they can to be the whipping boy without their savior this season. Even if you are rooting for your team and not betting, almost every game is compelling from a point differential standpoint.
For example, I must have underestimated Eric Mangini’s ability to use an extra week to prepare his Cleveland Browns last season against the visiting New England Patriots. That bye week allowed Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis to completely destroy New England 34-14. Oh and the spread in that game? New England was a four point road favorite against the Browns! That didn’t end up so well for yours truly. Glad I avoided another one of those trap road favorite games. A la the St. Louis Rams beat down of the New Orleans a few weeks back.
The NBA has used an advertising slogan “Where amazing happens” the past couple seasons. It got me thinking about a new NFL advertising pitch. Instead of 30 year olds gathered around a big screen downing beer and screaming for their two win football team, we change the message a bit. I was thinking along the lines of: “Bet On The NFL: It will tease your wallet until the remnants of your bankroll are flushed down the toilet due to those seductive Sunday and Monday night prime time games that make you double down to get back some of the dough lost on Sunday afternoon!”
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